Maotai Town, the heartland of China’s premium sauce-flavor baijiu industry, is confronting a severe downturn as a new wave of production suspensions sweeps through its once-thriving distilleries. Industry reports indicate that 70% of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have halted operations, 30% of sales managers have abandoned the sector, and raw liquor prices have crashed to below 30 yuan per kilogram—a dramatic fall from the peak of over 100 yuan per kilogram during the industry’s zenith. This crisis underscores the deepening challenges in a sector that once symbolized luxury and profitability. 

The latest data reveals a 13.33% year-on-year decline in China’s sauce-flavor baijiu output for 2024, dropping to 650,000 kiloliters. While sales revenue and profits saw modest growth of 4.35% (240 billion yuan) and 3.19% (97 billion yuan) respectively, these figures pale in comparison to the double-digit growth rates seen in previous years. Notably, this marks the first contraction in the sector’s production capacity since 2018, aligning with the broader downward trend in China’s overall liquor industry, which has seen eight consecutive years of declining output. 

The current turmoil echoes the 2013 shutdown wave, when austerity policies slashed demand for high-end liquor, causing Maotai Town’s GDP to dip from 22.8 billion yuan (2011) to 22.4 billion yuan (2012). However, today’s challenges are more complex. The 2020–2021 investment frenzy, driven by speculative capital flooding into the region, led to rampant overcapacity. Analysts estimate that China’s annual demand for sauce-flavor baijiu is adequately met at 600,000–700,000 tons, yet the market was flooded with excess supply. Compounding this, consumer preferences have shifted toward established brands like Moutai, Guotai, and Langjiu, leaving SMEs struggling to compete. Stricter government regulations on substandard production and environmental compliance have further tightened the noose, forcing many small distilleries to shut down or operate below 30% capacity. 

The ripple effects are widespread. Cellar leasing prices, once a lucrative side business during the boom, have halved as investors retreat. Meanwhile, even large firms face pressure: Moutai reduced its premium product output by 900 tons in 2024 while expanding mid-tier offerings, intensifying competition for SMEs reliant on budget segments. Industry experts predict consolidation will accelerate, with the number of distilleries plummeting from thousands to fewer than 1,000, and the top 10 players monopolizing 80% of profits. 

The 2013 crisis allowed some SMEs to pivot by supplying base liquor to larger brands. Today, however, the path to survival is narrower. Market consolidation, higher quality standards, and environmental policies have erased the flexibility smaller players once enjoyed. For instance, local authorities in Guizhou Province have imposed stringent production licenses and waste discharge rules, effectively sidelining under-resourced operators. 

While the current downturn signals a shift toward industry standardization, the road to recovery remains uncertain for SMEs. As capital exits and margins shrink, Maotai Town’s once-booming economy faces a reckoning. The town’s fate now hinges on whether it can transition from chaotic expansion to sustainable growth—a transformation that may leave countless small producers behind.